JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers, BARRON's claims in their next edition. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it.Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.
Sunday, October 22, 2006
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7 comments:
FYI -- the Barron's article link you used goes to a paid subscriber page with article abstract only. We made this article a Free Feature this week, here's URL:
http://online.barrons.com/public/article/SB116138396438799484-uMRQ4ejl3lonVnJ_TXy6k9fPXls_20061121.html?mod=9_0002_b_free_features
I don't know if the numbers are there. If we get our people out, we *might* be able to get Corker elected and Talent reelected. But even that looks shaky.
There's still some time on the clock, but we'd really have to get our people out in Montana, Ohio and so forth if we want see the Democrats blubbering, making loony-toons conspiracy theories about Diebold and so forth.
I've made my donation to the RNC, and I plan to vote, so I've done about everything I'm going to do besides insult liberals online.
And you are proficient at that if nothing else. :-)
The liar and chief was really on his game this morning.
On This Week on ABC George Stephanopoulos asked about James Baker’s plan to develop a strategy for Iraq that is "between 'stay the course' and 'cut and run.'"
Bush responded, "We’ve never been stay the course, George!"
Huh?!
BUSH: We will stay the course. [8/30/06]
BUSH: We will stay the course, we will complete the job in Iraq. [8/4/05]
BUSH: We will stay the course until the job is done, Steve. And the temptation is to try to get the President or somebody to put a timetable on the definition of getting the job done. We’re just going to stay the course. [12/15/03]
BUSH: And my message today to those in Iraq is: We’ll stay the course. [4/13/04]
BUSH: And that’s why we’re going to stay the course in Iraq. And that’s why when we say something in Iraq, we’re going to do it. [4/16/04]
BUSH: And so we’ve got tough action in Iraq. But we will stay the course. [4/5/04]
The man lives in "la-la land."
that is an unfortunate sentence if he really said that today...
I've been looking around at the polls, and it seems one particular pollster with no history in the polling business has issued polls on a number of races no other pollsters are polling. Many of them are Republican districts, and they have the Dems leading in most of those. It's these polls that are affecting most people's data, but it turns out some of their other polls are going opposite every other polling firm out there, sometimes with polls that were only a day or two earlier and in one case as much as 20-some points different. If you took that polling firm out of the calculation, the GOP would still be ahead in enough races to retain control. It seems as if this whole pundit declaration of a Dem victory depends on some bad polling. We'll have to wait until these districts get polls by real pollsters before confirming this, but that's what I think is going on.
He said it, Game.
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